The Boston Red Sox have made one of the offseason’s boldest moves, acquiring veteran starter Sonny Gray from the St. Louis Cardinals in a deal that has immediately divided analysts, fans, and fantasy baseball experts. The trade gives Boston the reliable No. 2 starter they’ve been searching for, but the cost — both in prospects and concern over Gray’s declining fastball — has sparked debate across Major League Baseball.
A Major Rotation Upgrade for Boston
Sonny Gray, a three-time All-Star and former AL Cy Young runner-up, brings experience and consistency to a rotation led by Garrett Crochet. Since 2022, Gray has posted a strong 3.53 ERA over 650+ innings, ranking among the league’s most dependable arms in both volume and efficiency.
Boston is banking on his elite command and dominant breaking-ball combination. Gray’s sweeper and curveball remain some of the most effective pitches in baseball, giving him the tools to miss bats even as he enters his age-36 season.
Cardinals Eat Salary, Red Sox Pay Heavy Prospect Price
To finalize the deal, the Cardinals included $20 million to offset Gray’s contract, reducing Boston’s financial commitment to $15 million for 2025, with a mutual option for 2026.
But the Red Sox paid heavily in talent:
- Richard Fitts, a 6’3” right-hander with mid-rotation upside.
- Brandon Clarke, Boston’s No. 5 prospect, a high-velocity lefty with elite slider potential.
Clarke’s fastball touches triple digits, and his nearly seven feet of extension makes him one of the most unique young arms in the minors. While raw, he carries the potential to become either a dominant reliever or a surprise frontline starter.
Concerns Surrounding Sonny Gray’s Declining Fastball
Despite Gray’s resume, his fastball has become a growing concern. His average velocity has dropped from 93 mph to under 92 mph over the last three seasons, and the pitch has been hit harder each year:
- 2023: .297 BA allowed
- 2024: .333 BA allowed
- 2025: .370 BA allowed
This trend has led analysts, including MLB insider Ken Rosenthal, to question whether the trade was worth the cost. “I’m not sure the Red Sox did well enough,” Rosenthal said on Foul Territory, noting that Boston may have preferred a short-term Gray rental over long-term commitments to other available starters.
Why Boston Still Believes in Gray
Even with a rising ERA (4.28 in 2025), Gray’s underlying metrics tell a different story. His strikeout-minus-walk rate ranked seventh in MLB, and he finished top-15 in both FIP and SIERA — advanced stats that suggest his performance was far better than his ERA indicated.
The Red Sox have also earned a reputation for reviving struggling fastballs. From Brayan Bello’s cutter to Garrett Crochet’s sinker, Boston’s pitching development has been successful at reshaping arsenals. The front office believes they can help Gray maximize his cutter and sinker, allowing him to thrive despite diminishing velocity.
Impact on the Cardinals’ Future
St. Louis walks away with two valuable arms as they begin reshaping their roster. Fitts offers immediate rotation depth, while Clarke provides rare upside worthy of a rebuilding team.
By paying down Gray’s contract, the Cardinals maximized their return — a sign the organization is serious about accelerating its long-term plans.
Fantasy Baseball Outlook
For fantasy players, Sonny Gray’s value shifts but remains intriguing. Steamer projects a 3.45 ERA in 2026, placing him among the top fantasy starters. While Fenway Park is hitter-friendly, Boston’s elite outfield defense and strong pitching infrastructure could help Gray outperform expectations.
Fitts becomes a deep-league sleeper with a chance to earn innings for St. Louis. Clarke remains a long-term upside stash for dynasty formats.
What’s Next for Boston?
This trade signals that the Red Sox are far from finished. With the offseason just beginning, Boston is expected to pursue additional roster upgrades as they build around Gray, Crochet, and a promising young core.
Whether Sonny Gray turns out to be the missing piece or a risky gamble will become clear as the 2026 season approaches — but one thing is certain: Boston is betting big on a veteran arm with elite upside and something to prove.